Research area
13 reports in the series.
The flagship statement of the concept: a general definition usable across disciplines, six capacities from prevention to transformation, and a development-oriented framework that applies four drivers to five systems through a five-stage cycle of continuous improvement.
A resilience-capacity scorecard for 166 countries finds the buffers concentrated where they are least needed, weaknesses travelling together in 50 countries of 1.7 billion people, and the 2020–23 shocks felt less in the first blow than in an unequal recovery.
The West’s share of world output, population and science has fallen sharply since mid-century, mostly because other regions rose. The report tests this relative-peak thesis against open data.
Has humanity passed its peak? Dating eighteen indicators, the report finds no single summit: capability keeps compounding while fertility, institutional trust, shared culture and ecological stability peaked decades apart.
Civilization as a race between two capacities usually treated as one: the capacity to produce complexity, and the capacity to manage its consequences. It lasts only while the second keeps pace with the first.
Flagship report in the Architecture of Creation series. Can the architecture that lets a civilization emerge, expand and dominate also explain how it loses coherence? For Europe, a qualified yes.
An evidence review of the “Western collapse” thesis — population decline, immigration, ethnic change and social cohesion — with scenarios to 2075.
A name for the worst way the polycrisis could end — and a framework for keeping it hypothetical. The decisive variable is the race between the rate crises add stress and the rate institutions repair it.
Which places are most likely to keep sustaining human health, stability and prosperity as climate, resource, demographic and governance stresses arrive together? A Habitability Resilience Index for 175 countries — and a demographic mismatch at its centre.
Why 2027 is the year the slow variables and the fast shocks arrive together, and what that means for those who must prepare.
A transparent 0–100 index of national capacity to reduce, absorb and adapt to compound risk — 40 countries, 18 indicators, six pillars, projected to 2100 under four IPCC pathways.
Adaptive capacity is the meta-capability that decides whether a shock becomes a contained disruption or a cascading crisis. It runs on two engines — infrastructure and institutions — that must be built together.
Coupled shocks defeat siloed responses. Four mutually reinforcing pillars — climate resilience, development finance, the energy transition, and institutional capacity — form a single strategy rather than a menu.