Research area
18 reports in the series.
The flagship statement of the concept: a general definition usable across disciplines, six capacities from prevention to transformation, and a development-oriented framework that applies four drivers to five systems through a five-stage cycle of continuous improvement.
Development as a resilience strategy, tested on 194 countries: development capability tracks sharply lower child mortality, poverty and disaster deaths, and deficit stacks have shrunk from 3.8 to 1.2 billion people. But development does not buy stability, and it raises emissions.
A scenario model of seven survival pathways estimates that coordinated action from 2026 could prevent about 368 million premature deaths by 2100, for roughly 1% of global GDP — and that each year of delay forfeits some 8.3 million of them.
The West’s share of world output, population and science has fallen sharply since mid-century, mostly because other regions rose. The report tests this relative-peak thesis against open data.
Where Survivability Risk Regions are, who will live in them as the demographic centre shifts, and what an exposure integral over 48,000 years implies. Third in the Polycrisis Apocalypse line, after HH-2026-24 and HH-2026-33.
A second, Global Risk & Earth Systems edition of the Polycrisis Apocalypse framework — reframed around the gap between survival and sustainable survival, and followed through centuries, millennia and deep time. Supersedes HH-2026-24.
Flagship report. The mathematics of diffusion — first written down for salt dissolving in water — as a disciplined way to see technology spread, productivity convergence and the accumulation of capability whole.
Decisions this decade, consequences to 2100. A purpose-built scenario model compares four futures and finds that acting early and together could avert roughly 368 million deaths — while delay or siloed action forfeits more than a third of that. Report 01 of the Polycrisis Resilience series.
How the demographic centre of humanity is moving into the planet’s most climate-exposed regions, and what it will take to keep the late twenty-first century liveable. Part II of the Century Recalibration series.
Where is humanity headed by 2100? The demographic shift toward Africa and South Asia, the ageing of the West and East Asia, the convergence of the Asian century, and the polycrisis — and what life will be like for the median human at the end of the century.
Why the central development problem is no longer invention but delivery.
The case for accelerating development is usually moral and economic. This report adds a third argument — timing: several slow stresses are set to peak together between 2040 and 2060, and development cuts vulnerability far faster than mitigation cuts hazard.
How many people the entangled crises of the century could kill, who is most exposed and vulnerable, and how much of the toll is avoidable: measured evidence, a transparent scenario model and an honest account of the catastrophic tail.
Debate about technology and development is usually conducted in the future tense. This report looks at what has already happened — which innovations reached the rest of the world, how completely, and what the record teaches about how diffusion works.
Resilience finance is scarce and barely correlated with vulnerability. Scoring 122 economies on risk intensity, risk mass and deliverability to show where each dollar would do the most.
Demography, Asia and Africa’s rise, technology and AI, climate, pollution and biodiversity, geopolitics, and whether progress can outpace systemic risk: a forward analysis to 2100.
A transparent 0–100 index of national capacity to reduce, absorb and adapt to compound risk — 40 countries, 18 indicators, six pillars, projected to 2100 under four IPCC pathways.
Adaptive capacity is the meta-capability that decides whether a shock becomes a contained disruption or a cascading crisis. It runs on two engines — infrastructure and institutions — that must be built together.